Delving into the Debate: Looking Further at the CBS Poll

As I noted in my last entry, CBS has what it believes a very accurate polling process that follows undecided voters and their opinion of the debate. It was this poll that initially caused people to proclaim that Obama won the debate...but delving further in the poll it looks as if Obama may have won over voters while McCain lost people with his demeanor. Check out these numbers from the poll.

What we see in the poll is that when the undecided voters were asked what their presidential preference was pre-debate vs. post debate, Obama held a 36-34% advantage before the debate, while he held a 41-29% advantage following the debate.

Furthermore, it appears as if Obama made himself more of a known quantity. Only 44% of undecided voters thought Obama was prepared to be President pre-debate, while 53% said he was unprepared. Post-debate, 58% of these same undecided voters declared Obama was prepared to be President, compared to 40% that felt he was unprepared. John McCains numbers on the same question remained virtually the same.

Even more interesting, prior to the debate only 58% of undecided voters polled felt that Obama understood their problems (with 40% saying he did not). Following the debate, that number stood at 79% saying he understood and only 21% saying he did not. That is a net gain of 21%. McCain also saw a modest gain in this number, as his number grew by 5%.

Finally, it appears as if John McCain's cantankerous attitude made many of the undecided voters have a less favorable opinion of him following the debate. While 32% of undecided voters polled said they had a better opinion of John McCain, an astounding 21% said they had a worse opinion. For Barack Obama, 46% of these same undecided voters had a better opinion of him, while only 8% had a worse opinion of him. What was their qualm with McCain? According to the poll, it was that "he 'didn’t control himself well under pressure,' that he was 'angry and bad-tempered,' and that he 'talked too much about the past.'"

Apparently, this was a more resounding victory for Barack Obama than even I thought. As this story is relayed in the media, it is inevitable that people will start to have their opinion reflect what is being reported, and Obama will be considered by most to have won. All that is left is to see if the polls reflect this.

CBS Releases Initial Poll on Debate

CBS has teamed up with Knowledge Networks to create highly accurate polls as to how the debate plays out with Uncommitted voters. And, surprisingly, Obama was viewed as the victor! Here are the results from the initial poll:

39% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 24% thought John McCain won. 37% percent saw it as a draw.

46% of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight. 32% said their opinion of McCain got better.

66% of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. 42% think McCain would.

48% percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. 56% percent think McCain would.

These results actually surprise me somewhat because I thought the way Obama attacked McCain on Iraq was extremely effective. The way he laid out every way that McCain was initially wrong on Iraq was very strong. But apparently it was the economy that played in Obama's favor.

Elitist vs. Folsky: My Initial Response to the Debate

For me, watching this debate, it was a pretty strong victory for Obama. His ability to hang with McCain on the issues of foreign policy, when McCain is supposed to have a ton of experience on foreign policy, shows clearly that Obama can stand with the big boys. Time and time again he would wade through McCain's mischaracterization of his stance, and then restate his own stance.

And, yet, the media is likely to spin this as a victory for McCain. Obama's inability to take control of the conversation when McCain would misrepresent his view (simply because McCain would keep talking), thus forcing Obama to try and talk over the moderator, makes Obama look bad. McCain's sniveling comments, funny faces, and mis-speaks show me why he is not someone we want to lead our country...for those that are small town, he comes off as folksy. Obama, with all his facts and plans comes off as elitist. How do I know this? My one Republican friend, who claimed the other day she was likely going to vote for Obama, said Obama came off as all holier than thou and his tone was disgusting. That's likely to be the reason small town America will connect with McCain in this debate. Even though Obama thrashed McCain on Iraq laying out clearly every issue in Iraq that McCain was wrong on. And McCain came off as lecturing Obama on foreign policy simply because he claims to have "more experience." He said, and I quote, "I honestly don't believe that Sen. Obama has the knowledge or experience and has made the wrong judgments in a number of areas, including his initial reaction to Russian invasion...uh...aggression in Georgia." Wow. Just wow.

Let's also note that McCain made a huge gaffe on the issue of Pakistan, stating that it was a failed state when Musharraf took over...and yet I bet the media finds a way to spin that as a possibility since he did come into power during a coup.

All in all, a failure by McCain to win this debate (pundits seem to be calling it a tie), is likely a long term victory for Obama.

The Presidential Debate #1: BLOGGING LIVE!

Debate is over.

7:35 PM: McCain goes after Obama, saying he is like Bush..."I honestly don't believe that Sen. Obama has the knowledge or experience and has made the wrong judgments in a number of areas, including his intial reaction to Russian invasion...uh...aggression in Georgia." - John McCain

7:30 PM: Candidates are discussing the likelihood of another 9/11 attack. Obama says we need to go deal with terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan and that we need to fix our standing in the world. McCain says Obama wants to forget about Iraq and that signals victory to Al-Qaeda. Obama says we need a broader strategic vision.

7:25 PM: Thanks to HuffPost for noting that Obama is wearing a flag pin and McCain is not!

7:16 PM: Lehrer asks about Russia.

Obama says their actions in Georgia were unacceptable and lays out what Russia must do in that situation.

McCain says Obama is naive. Lays out that the Russia attack on Georgia had to do with energy and the pipeline. Obama agrees with the McCain assessment other than his portrayal of the Obama response.

7:12 PM: McCain makes a joke about being President. Nobody laughs.

7:03 PM: Lehrer asks about the threat of Iran.

McCain says that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, they are an "existential threat" (wtf?! he needs to learn the meaning of that word) to Israel. He says sanctions on Iranian could have a beneficial affect and says that they have a lousy government! Wow! I can't believe he would say that out loud (to quote his own phrase).

Obama talks about Iran funding Hezbollah and Hamas, and that our policy over the last 8 years on Iran has not worked. That we cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran.

McCain struggles with the President of Iran's name (ACK ACK ACKMIN ACKMINDINADINADINADINADINADINAJAD)

6:57 PM: Lehrer asks about Afghanistan and the candidates spar over Afghanistan and Pakistan. They re throwing one liners back and forth. McCain tells a sob story about a mother of a fallen soldier giving him a bracelet to wear for her son. Obama says "look, i have a bracelet too." McCain accuses that Obama didnt go to Afghanistan so he must not care about it either. McCain then says Pakistan was a failed state when President Musharraf came to power and anyone who went there would know that. (While Musharraf did take over in a coup, to call them a failed state at that point is a fucking joke).


6:50 PM: The candidates are arguing over Obama's plan in Afghanistan. Literally talking over each other. I don't know why either of these candidates are saying that the surge in Iraq worked. A UCLA study that came out this week said that that wasn't the case, that sectarian violence lessened because of ethnic cleansing in neighborhoods.

6:44 PM: McCain goes after Obama saying he never visited Afghanistan and that the surge worked. Obama retorts by saying it wasn't his committee that would deal with that. Says that, "John, you like to think the war started in 2007, when it really started in 2003," and then goes after McCain for all the things he was wrong about at the start of the war.

"I'm afraid Sen. Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy" - John McCain

6:39 PM: Lehrer asks about the lessons of Iraq.

McCain says our initial military success disappeared because the war was badly mishandled. That he went to Iraq in 2003 and came back and said we needed a new strategy. He claims the current strategy has succeeded and we will win in Iraq.

Obama says this war was wrong. That we shouldn't hesitate to use military force but we need to use it wisely.

6:35 PM: Obama says we are spending $300 billion in tax cuts for people that don't need it, and we are not funding health care, then our values need to be reanalyzed.

McCain says the Obama health care plan take choice away from families and gives it to the government. Then rails on and on about spending. Apparently he has "plans" to reduce unnecessary spending.

6:33 PM: McCain calls for a spending freeze on everything but caring for veterans, national defense, and several other vital issues. Obama responds by saying that's using a hatchet when we need a scalpel. ZING!

6:28 PM: Obama says to eliminate the programs that don't work and to bolster those that do. McCain retorts by saying we need to cut subsidies for ethanol, attacks Obama for having the "most liberal" voting record in the Senate (and Obama responds with a sinister laugh like he is going to tear him apart), and then McCain goes on to talk about defense spending. The debate seems pretty even to this point (although Obama's answers are more to the point).

6:25 PM: Obama and McCain are sparring over taxes. It is somewhat humorous. They accuse each other of misrepresenting the numbers. Obama seems scholarly. McCain seems folksy (although I think he is just acting like a child). That is probably good for McCain.

6:18 PM: McCain retorts by going after Obama saying he didnt start cutting spending until AFTER he was running for President and says Obama will raise spending.

Obama responds that by ending tax loopholes, as he plans to do, will pay for all the tax cuts. He says his plan will help the middle class and McCain's does not.

McCain lays out specifically what he is thinking in terms of the business tax cuts, saying he wants to cut it so businesses will remain in the USA and not go abroad. He then again says Sen. Obama is a "recent convert" because he requested pork barrel funds prior to running for President. Asks what Obama's definition of rich is...

Obama lays out what his tax plan is, saying that 95% will get tax cuts but the top 5% wont see a rise in their tax rates. He then goes after McCain saying that although business taxes are high, there are so many loopholes that they pay way less. He then says McCain wants to tax health benefits.



6:15 PM: Jim Lehrer asks specifically what each candidate would do as President to fix the economy.

McCain says he would cut pork barrel spending and would veto all spending bills.

Obama agrees spending limits are good...but attacks McCain for his tax plan that includes tax cuts to the rich, with CEOs getting $700,000 in tax cuts. He then lays out his plan (tax cuts for 95% of working families)

6:10 PM: Obama says he is likely to vote for the bailout plan but says he has yet to see the language. In an otherwise excellent retort about wall street vs. main street, McCain misleads by saying he called for the resignation of the head of the SEC. He in fact said he would fire him if he were President (a power the President does not have).

Obama goes after McCain on saying the fundamentals are strong. McCain responds by saying he has faith in American workers to get by. Non-responsive, yet an excellent answer.

6:02 PM: Obama open the debate with an excellent answer about the economy. He seems to be on a roll. He even attacks Mccain. McCain responds initially by mis-stepping (not knowing Sen. Kennedy is out of the hospital and forgetting where he was), but powers on to an excellent answer, making him come off as extremely likeable.

No End In Sight: Iraq War Documentary Available to View in its Entirety Online

No End in Sight, Charles H. Ferguson's documentary about the occupation of Iraq, is available to watch for free on YouTube until November 5th. The documentary focuses on the first two years of the invasion and the miscalculations of the Bush Administration in engaging in the invasion in the first place. The basic premises of the film are that:

* The rise of the insurgency was not anticipated
* Proper security and basic utilities were not provided for Iraq
* They did not foresee the sectarian violence or potential civil war

What makes this film so significant is not any sort of revelations that come from the film (since most of the information was known in advance of the war by many intellectuals), but that key members of the occupation leadership and the Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA) lay out how the Administration mismanaged the war. This leads to the damning, and widely acknowledged, conclusion that the Bush Administration refused to listen to outsiders who could have foreseen such results. The interviewees include the likes of:

*General Jay Garner( who ran the reconstruction before L. Paul Bremer)
*Ambassador Barbara Bodine
*Richard Armitage (who was deputy secretary of the State Department)
*Robert Hutchings (who was chairman of the National Intelligence Council)
*Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (who was Colin Powell's chief of staff)
*Col. Paul Hughes (who was part of ORHA and then the Coalition Provisional Authority)

The documentary was critically acclaimed (not only having received a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but appearing on the Top 10 list of many critics) and so now, sit back, and enjoy:

It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia Mashup!

For those that do not know the genius of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia...make sure you are tuned in to FX this Thursday night at 10pm so that you can see the season 4 premier! On the website you can even make your own trailer...here is mine. ENJOY!

Darkly Dreaming Dexter: Showtime's Dexter Returns on September 28th

Yep... It's back soooo soon! Everyone's favorite serial killer is back for a third season on September 28. Here's a preview:


Some highlights of the upcoming season (not really too much in the way of spoilers):
Jimmy Smits is added to the cast.
Dexter kills an innocent.
Dexter is becoming "more human."
Deb gets into a serious relationship (again?!).
Masuka's character gets more developed.

NOW GO...WATCH...ENJOY!

Heavy Metal in Baghdad: Inside the Life of an Iraqi Band

The premise behind the documentary Heavy Metal in Baghdad was to follow the career of the band Acrassicauda, an Iraqi heavy metal band who simply wants to make music. Instead, the picture that emerges is the harshness of life in post-Saddam Iraq, and the desperation of a people who are suffering at the hands of war and destruction. Here is the trailer:


Those of you who know me, know that I am not all that into heavy metal. Sure, in my youth I enjoyed Metallica quite a bit. But these days, those songs are nothing more than nostalgia for me. That being said, this is a riveting documentary that follows the lives of a band who are the only heavy metal band in Iraq. What comes from the documentary is the despair that they all feel, and the importance of their music as an outlet…not only for them, but also for their fans. Sometimes comical, other times devastating, the film shows the reality of what life is like on the ground in Iraq.

What stood out the most for me is that the image the band paints is so different from that which we see in our own media. For the band, life is horrendous. Even though two of the members live only 15 minutes from each other, because of the violence they don’t see each other for months at a time. One member even goes so far as to say that the conflict between the Shi’ites and Sunnis is manufactured by the politicians (he and his wife each being of the different Islamic faiths). All these guys want to do is rock, and everywhere they turn they aren’t allowed to.

The film is out on DVD, so go check it out. Even if you aren’t that into music you will be able to appreciate it!

Lies Lies Lies: Why Does Barack Obama Want Our Kindergarteners to Start Fucking?!

It has taken some time, but the so-called “Liberal Media” is finally reporting on some of the misleading advertisements and statements that the McCain/Palin campaign has been disseminating since the RNC. The most notorious of these misadventures in stretching the truth is one of the latest McCain attack adds that declares that Obama wants to teach our kindergarteners to learn about sex before they can even read. Wow! Here is the ad:


Okay, this is just ridiculous. Without even looking at the facts, HOW CAN ANYONE BELIEVE THAT BARACK OBAMA WOULD WANT KINDERGARTENERS TO BE TAUGHT COMPREHENSIVE SEX EDUCATION?! Unfortunately, not all Americans are so smart…they tend to believe the lies spread about him (remember that whole Muslim thing?). But, instead, let’s step into a time machine and travel back to 2004, and look at the fact that Alan Keyes made these same allegations in Obama’s Senate Run. His attempts to attack Obama on this issue weren’t successful then, and McCain’s attempt to do it now is down right misleading. And what is the basis for this accusation? Illinois S.B. 99.

First off, the ad implies that Barack Obama was somehow responsible for the legislation (his “one accomplishment”). And yet he was not even one of the sponsors of the Bill. Furthermore, the bill never even passed.

That being said, let’s look at the Bill itself. The text of the Bill is long, but there are two significant parts to look at:

Each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV…[but] shall emphasize that abstinence is an effective method of preventing unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and HIV…

and

Course material and instruction shall teach pupils to not make unwanted physical and verbal sexual advances and how to say no to unwanted sexual advances and shall include information about verbal, physical, and visual sexual harassment, including without limitation nonconsensual sexual advances, nonconsensual physical sexual contact, and rape by an acquaintance.

So, the text of the bill does state that comprehensive sex education could be extended to those in K through 12. But, as Barack Obama has stated ad naseum, it is the latter provision that is significant for elementary school aged children…to teach them how to avoid sexual predators and what to do when sexual advances are made against them. The whole idea is to teach age appropriate sex education

However, for those that may have been concerned that the “comprehensive sex education” might be extended to kindergarteners, the Bill, itself, ensures IN THE VERY FIRST CLAUSE that objecting parents do not have to allow their kids to learn sexual education at school, as it starts out:

No pupil shall be required to take or participate in any class or course in comprehensive sex education if the pupil's parent or guardian submits written objection thereto…

In short, it would have given parents the right to prevent any such lessons from being taught to their children. In the text, they are even given the right to go over the materials and ensure that they are acceptable. All in all, a pretty misleading advertisement by the McCain/Palin team.

And that is just one example…let us not forget other such inaccuracies as Sarah Palin’s stance on the “Bridge to Nowhere,” the statement that Barack Obama wants everyone’s taxes to be raised, or that Obama’s “Lipstick on a Pig” comment was gender based, amongst many others (each of those could encapsulate a single blog entry and I do not have the patience or wherewithal to go through with each statement right now).

As Huffington Post reports, the media sources now calling into question McCain’s “gutter politics” and/or mistruths include The New Republic, CBS, MSNBC, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Chicago Tribune, Slate, Washington Post, The American Prospect , and even the McCain championing Associated Press. It is about time the media started wising up to such misdeeds! Now, let’s hope they keep it up!

The Return of the Crocodile Bolsters Seattle Music Scene

My buddy Andrew Matson is reporting in the Seattle Times that the Crocodile Café will reopen in April. For those of you not in the know, the Croc was one of the best venues in Seattle. It had the best sound you could find in the entire city and had a great atmosphere to see a show, having a capacity of 350 (although it usually averaged around 300 a night). It was a place where you could have seen Nirvana, Mudhoney, Elliott Smith, Modest Mouse (when they were still local), and even the Beastie Boys (who played a Jazz set there not long before it shut down). I even saw an amazing Lucero show (with William Elliot Whitmore and Whiskey & Co.) there with Zack from Like Claws! back in October. But then, in December, it was abruptly closed.

It now appears as if we may have it back, this time with a larger capacity (of about 400)and the back bar turned into a pizza shop. And luckily Jim Anderon will still be running the sound...so everyone rejoice...THE CROC IS BACK!!