Managing Expectations: Sarah Palin and the V.P. Debate

For the last week, I have been saying to anyone who would listen that they should not underestimate Sarah Palin. Sure, she doesn’t know any Supreme Court cases other than [i]Roe v. Wade[/i], but if there is one thing she knows how to do, it is use rhetoric to create nice little sound bites. And what does a debate provide? The opportunity to create such sound bites with questions that are pretty much expected to come, making it easy to prep for them. Thus, when every once was saying they couldn’t wait to watch Palin make a fool of herself, I was saying hold on a minute…have you watched the Alaska Gubernatorial debates? Because I have, and she can hold her own.

That being said, there was no way that people weren’t going to be impressed by Gov. Palin in tonight’s debate? When you set expectations that low, it is an easy bar to jump over. Even during the debate I could see the media spin already: “America Gets to Know Palin…And Loves Her!” Middle America was going to eat her phony, obviously played-up Fargo accent and her folksy pronunciation of words (nuke-you-lur anyone?) right up! However, what I didn’t expect was for Joe Biden to shine so brightly…

Although, maybe that shouldn’t have been the case, since it was Sen. Biden who delivered probably the two best moments of the Democratic Primary debates:

and


Time and time again, Joe Biden effectively attacked John McCain, with straight forward, factual comments. Here is one hard hitting example:

That is one of the most effective attacks I have heard made upon Sen. McCain, and it was made in the right place…a nationally televised debate. So much for all that maverick talk.

And, in one of the most heart-felt moments I have ever seen from any public official (making the whole Hillary crying debacle in the primary look like the ploy for votes that it was), Sen. Biden choked up, and had to fight off tears, while speaking of being a single father after the death of his wife and daughter:

Look how the uncommitted voters of Ohio responded to that on the bottom of the screen…wow! That was not just some stunt…that was real pain. And people could see that. Biden impressed me. I think he is an even better debater than Barack Obama.

Palin, for all of her composure, delivered line after line of deceptive information. And when the McCain-Palin’s stance on an issue was attacked (especially early on), she would oftentimes simply try to change the subject. See for yourself:


Thus, for the second straight debate, I was wrong. My impression that America would likely side with the folksy Republican candidate over the “elitist” Democratic candidate was off base (what kind of bizarro world do we live in where the truths of the 2000 and 2004 campaigns no longer apply?! I guess Bush still had people fooled in 2004…?). Although, I was correct that people would be impressed Palin…just wrong that this would in turn cause people to believe she won the debate.

First, those same uncommitted Ohio voters I spoke of above overwhelmingly felt Biden won the debate, with 51% saying Sen. Biden won the debate, while 36% said Palin won:

Second, the extremely detailed CBS-Knowledge Networks poll also showed Joe Biden to be the winner. It broke down as follows:

WHO WON THE DEBATE?
(Uncommitted Voters Who Watched Debate)
Biden 46%
Palin 21
Tie 33

The other numbers from that poll bear this out even further. In terms of the uncommitted voters’ opinions of the candidates, following the debate, 53% had a better opinion of Biden, 5% had a worse opinion of Biden, and 42% held the same opinion of the candidate. As to Sarah Palin, 55% had a better opinion of her, while 14% actually had a worse opinion of her, and 30% felt the same.

When asked about whether the candidate was knowledgeable about important issues, prior to the debate 79% said Joe Biden was (with 17% saying he was not), while after the debate, a whopping 98% of the uncommitted voters who were polled said that Joe Biden was knowledgeable (while only 2% said he was not). This same question in terms of Gov. Palin had 43% of voters prior to the debate saying she was knowledgeable, while 66% said she was after the debate (pre-debate 54% said she was not knowledgeable, while only 32% said she was not following the debate).

Similarly, and most significantly, the uncommitted voters were asked whether the candidate would be an effective President if necessary. The numbers bore out like this:

Is Joe Biden prepared for the job of Vice President?
Pre-Debate:
Yes 66%
No 30

Post-Debate:
Yes 91%
No 8

Is Sarah Palin prepared for the job of Vice President?
Pre-Debate:
Yes 35%
No 62

Post-Debate:
Yes 44%
No 56

These uncommitted voters saw a huge jump in their view of Biden’s preparedness to lead, while the jump for Palin was quite small.

Finally, even ex-Bush officials declared Biden the winner.

Maybe I need to have more faith in the American voter. 8 years of Bush has tested my opinion of them, but alas, maybe I’m coming back around. Whatever the case may be, I leave you with this humorous portrayal of the entire Palin situation: